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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 19

Jan 19, 2012

Thursday, January 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

If you take a look at the monthly chart for the U.S. dollar
index, it shows that prices have indeed posted a decent
rebound from the 2011 low. However, the monthly chart also
reveals the dollar index is still in the lower region of
the overall trading range of the past few years.
Technically, this suggests the dollar index still has more
room to run on the upside during 2012.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to a nearly six-month high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,307.20 and then at 1,325.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,286.70 and
then at 1,272.70. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly six-month
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the July 2011 high of 2,434.50 and then at
2,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,418.50 and then at 2,400.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly six-month high
overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at
12,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 12,550 and then at 12,600. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even and then
at 143 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 144 24/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at last week’s high of 131.23.5 and then at 132.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.07.5 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading
today, on more profit taking from recent gains. Bulls are
fading a bit this week. Dollar index bulls do still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 80.80 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 80.42 and then at 80.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In February
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
this week’s high of $102.06 and then at $102.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $101.10 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on a corrective
upside bounce from selling pressure seen Wednesday. The key
“outside markets” are in a bullish posture this morning, as
the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are firmer. The grain markets are still
in bearish near-term technical postures.
 

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