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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 30

Jan 30, 2012

Monday, January 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index is posting a modest rebound to start
the trading week. Crude oil is also weaker, which has
several other commodity futures markets under pressure
Monday. The U.S. dollar bulls need to step up and show good
power this week, as this week will likely determine whether
the recent sell off is just a downside correction in an
overall uptrend, or if the uptrend in the dollar index has
ended and a fresh downtrend is in place on the daily
chart.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,314.40 and then at last week’s high of 1,329.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,300.00 and then at
1,286.70. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,450.00 and then at the overnight
high of 2,460.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,425.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,419.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at
12,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 12,600 and then at Friday’s high of 12,650.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even
and then at the overnight low of 143 13/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 16/32
and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
contract high of 132.05.5 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.22.5 and
then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading
today, on a short-covering bounce from recent selling
pressure. Bears still have some downside near-term technical
momentum and bulls need to show more power this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
79.65 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
79.00 and then at last week’s low of 78.89. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$101.00 and then at last week’s high of $101.39. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then
at the January low of $97.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are in a bearish posture for grains this morning,
as the U.S. dollar index is higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Forecasts for beneficial
rains in South American corn and soybean regions this week
are also a negative factor for the grain markets today.
 

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