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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--January 5

Jan 05, 2012

Thursday, January 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Many commodity markets are seeing corrective pullbacks so far
today, following decent gains to start the new year. I am bullish
the raw commodity sector in 2012. If commodity markets do not
have a good year in 2012, then it would likely mean the world’s
major economies slipped back into recession, which would then
mean most markets would be in trouble in 2012.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,279.80 and then at
the October high of 1,288.70. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,260.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,243.10. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this
week’s high of 2,328.25 and then at the December high of
2,344.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,300.00 and then at
2,284.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,250 and then more stops just below support at
12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at Wednesday’s high of 12,362 and then at this week’s high of
12,415. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 15/32 and
then at this week’s low of 142 3/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies
at the overnight high of 143 9/32 and then at this week’s high of
143 31/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.25.0
and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low
of 130.13.0 and then at this week’s low of 130.08.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today.
Dollar index bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.01 and then at the
December high of 81.41. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.50 and
then at the overnight low of 80.38. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly weaker early today, on a
mild corrective pullback from this week’s gains that on Wednesday
saw prices hit a seven-month high. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. In February crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of
$103.74 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $102.00 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback
from recent good gains. Grain market bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum. The dry weather in South American
corn and soybean regions is a significantly bullish fundamental
for corn and soybean futures at present. I look for more
commodity fund money to flow into the grain markets in the first
quarter of the new year.
 

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