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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 13

Jul 13, 2012

Friday, July 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

In overnight news, Chinese second-quarter GDP data showed
weakness, but in line with market expectations. China’s
annual growth rate was pegged at 7.6% in the second quarter—
the slowest growth rate in three years. This has raised
speculation China will again ease its monetary policy, which
is a bullish underlying factor for the commodity markets.
Asian stocks did rise on the China GDP news, as it was not
worse than the market place expected. In other news, Moody’s
on Friday downgraded Italy’s sovereign bond rating. Still,
the latest auction of Italian three-year government debt saw
decent demand, suggesting the EU debt crisis has for the
moment stabilized.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 1,339.40
and then at this week’s high of 1,356.30. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 1,320.00 and
then at 1,310.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 2,569.75 and
then at Wednesday’s high of 2,589.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,537.50 and then at
Thursday’s low of 2,516.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,500 and then at 12,450. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,600 and then at
12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh six-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 151
28/32 and then at 152 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 151 15/32 and then at 151 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 134.24.5 and then at the June
high of 134.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s
low of 134.10.5 and then at 134.00.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are steady to slightly weaker in early U.S. trading,
on profit taking after hitting a six-week high Thursday. The
greenback bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at June high of 84.00 and then at 84.25. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.64 and then
at 83.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher in early trading. In August
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $87.50 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading as Corn Belt
extended weather forecasts are calling for a return of very
hot temperatures next week, with only scant rains. The
major drought in the central U.S. is worsening with no
relief in sight. Wednesday’s key reversals down in corn and
soybean futures are on the verge of being rendered moot.
How the grain close today will be telling. Weekly low
closes on Friday, or close to them, would be a
significantly bearish clue. Weekly high closes on Friday,
or close to them, would be a significantly bullish clue.
 

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