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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 19

Jul 19, 2012

Thursday, July 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a risk-on trading day in the market place so far
Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and the raw
commodity sector is mostly higher, led by crude oil. Many
markets have turned choppy as the dog days of summer
approach. Much of Europe is on holiday during August. It
would not be surprising to see many markets languish in
choppy and sideways trading for the next six weeks. In
overnight news, tensions in the Middle East are heightened
following a suicide bomber attack on a bus in Bulgaria,
which carried Israeli tourists. Israel blamed Iran for the
attack and said it would respond with force. Also late
Wednesday a suicide bomber attacked Syrian leader Assad’s
national security headquarters and killed the defense
minister and Assad’s brother-in-law.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh nine-week high overnight
as bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,375.20 and then at 1,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,367.40 and then
at Wednesday’s low of 1,352.60. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,638.25 and
then at the July high of 2,655.75. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,623.00 and then at
2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh nine-week high overnight as
bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
12,870 and then at 12,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 12,950 and then at 13,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 151 4/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of
151 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
150 18/32 and then at 150 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 134.26.0 and
then at the contract high of 135.00.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134.15.5 and then at
134.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and hit a fresh two-
week low. The greenback bulls are fading a bit. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 83.13 and then at Wednesday’s high of
83.46. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
82.80 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher and hit a fresh seven-week high
in early trading. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term
technical momentum. It appears this market has put in a
major low. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $92.00 and then at $92.50.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00
and then at $89.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly higher in overnight trading, with
nearby corn and soybean futures prices scoring new all-time
record highs. Many now agree this present drought in the
Corn Belt is now worse than 1988 and maybe as bad as the
1936 drought. The U.S. drought is worsening by the day with
no significant relief in sight. However, the bull market
run in the grains is very mature. It’s still my bias that
the grain futures markets will top out in the near term.
Remember that a market gets the most very bullish at the
very top in price.
 

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