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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 20

Jul 20, 2012

Friday, July 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a quiet day on the business news front Friday, as the
summer doldrums are setting in. Traders and investors
continue to debate whether QE3 will be implemented, and if
so when. Thursday’s batch of weak U.S. economic data
bolstered the case that a fresh quantitative easing move by
the Federal Reserve will occur soon. Attention of the market
place has turned to the Middle East following recent
developments in that volatile region. However, it won’t be
long until the European Union and its sovereign debt crisis
are back on the front burner of the market place.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls have gained some fresh upside near-
term technical momentum this week. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,375.70 and then at 1,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,352.60 and then at this week’s low of
1,339.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of
2,658.00 and then at 2,670.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Thursday’s low of 2,623.00 and then at 2,600.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Bulls have gained some upside near-term
technical momentum this week. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 12,800 and then at 12,750. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,840 and then at 12,880. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 151 24/32 and
then at 152 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 151 even and
then at the overnight low of 150 19/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract
high of 135.00.5 and then at 135.08.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 134.16.0 and then at
134.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The greenback bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
83.46 and then at this week’s high of 83.77. Shorter-term
support is seen at 83.00 and then at this week’s low of
82.80. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower on some profit taking after
hitting a two-month high on Thursday. Bulls still have some
upside near-term technical momentum. It appears this market
has put in a major low. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $92.30 and then at Thursday’s high of $92.94. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $91.00 and then
at $90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading, with
nearby soybean futures prices scoring another new all-time
record high overnight. Many now agree this present drought
in the Corn Belt is now worse than 1988 and maybe as bad as
the 1936 drought. The U.S. drought is worsening by the day
with no significant relief in sight. However, the bull
market run in the grains is very mature. It’s still my bias
that the grain futures markets will top out in the near
term. Remember that a market gets the most very bullish at
the very top in price. It would not surprise me to see some
significant profit-taking pressure in the grains today,
ahead of the weekend.
 

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