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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 3

Jul 03, 2012

Tuesday, July 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a mild “risk-on” trading day in the market place
Tuesday. Traders are awaiting the European Central Bank
meeting on Thursday, with many expecting further easing of
monetary policy. European stocks are firmer on the rate-cut
hopes. Tuesday’s EU producer price data showed Euro zone
inflation slowed to its lowest rate in two years, which
further stoked hopes for an imminent ECB rate cut. Traders
are also awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report. It’s
likely to be a quieter trading week this week, as the U.S.
Independence Day holiday is Wednesday and many traders
likely opting to take the entire week off.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,362.30 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 1,349.70 and then at
1,341.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures:  The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the June high of
2,628.25 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Monday’s low of 2,599.50 and then at 2,585.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 12,730 and then at 12,700. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,800 and then at Monday’s high of 12,825. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 149 17/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 149 even and then at 148 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Monday’s high of 133.07.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 133.16.0 and then at Monday’s low
of 133.09.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early trading. The greenback bulls
have faded and need to show fresh power soon. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 82.09 and then at 82.25. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 81.87 and then at
last week’s low of 81.56. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly higher in early trading, on
short covering and bargain hunting following recent strong
selling pressure. There is also some fresh saber-rattling
from Iran. The crude oil market may have put in a near-term
low. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $87.00 and then at $87.32. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then
at $84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher again in overnight trading. The weather
market in the grains remains fully bullish. Corn and
soybean crops deteriorated more than expected the past
week, as reported by USDA Monday afternoon. The key
“outside markets” are bullish for the grains early today,
as the U.S. dollar index is steady-weaker and crude oil
prices are solidly higher. The U.S. Independence Day
holiday has been a pivotal time period for the grain
markets.
 

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