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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 31

Jul 31, 2012

Tuesday, July 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Attention of the market place this week remains focused on
the two-day FOMC meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which
starts Tuesday and ends early Wednesday afternoon, and the
European Central Bank’s policy meeting and press conference
on Thursday. The Bank of England also meets to discuss its
monetary policy, with results due on Thursday. Market
watchers will be closely scrutinizing these central bank
meetings for any fresh clues on the implementation of
quantitative easing of monetary policies. The ECB is
expected by many to announce a fresh monetary stimulus
package. Such would be at least initially bullish for many
markets, including the precious metals. After the batch of
central bank meetings are out of the way, focus of the
market place will quickly turn to the U.S. employment report
on Friday morning. In overnight news, there was more
downbeat EU economic data released, as the unemployment rate
in the EU rose to above 11%--its highest level since EU
record-keeping began in 1995. Tuesday is the last trading
day of the month, which makes it a more important day from a
technical standpoint.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,387.30 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,375.00 and then at 1,360.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have some upside momentum
on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the July high of 2,658.00 and then at 2,675.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of
2,628.25 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum
as prices Monday hit a fresh 11-week high. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of
12,990 and then at 12,950. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 13,071 and
then at 13,100. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 151
16/32 and then at 152 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
151 even and then at the overnight low of 150 18/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
135.00.0 and then at 135.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 134.13.0 and then at this week’s low
of 134.00.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
83.06 and then at 83.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.70 and then at last week’s low of 82.40.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady again today. Bulls still
have some upside near-term technical momentum. Prices are in
a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at Monday’s high of $90.95 and then at $92.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $89.00
and then at $88.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading, as the
major drought continues with no significant relief in
sight. Weekly crop progress reports from USDA, issued
Monday afternoon, were about what the grain market traders
expected. Remember that this bull market run in the grains
is very mature. It’s still my bias that the grain futures
markets already have, or will top out in the near term.
Remember that a market gets the most very bullish at the
very top in price.
 

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