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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 9

Jul 09, 2012

Monday, July 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

In overnight news, China’s consumer price inflation dropped
in June and is now at its lowest level in over two years. A
German Treasury bill auction Monday fetched a record
negative yield, following last week’s European Central Bank
rate cut. The market place is now awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC
minutes from the Federal Reserve for any clues on U.S.
monetary policy actions upcoming. The recent dour world
economic news, including Monday’s fresh data from China and
the EU, raises the specter of price deflation. Price
deflation is the enemy of most markets, especially commodity
markets. However, it’s important to point out there are many
commodity markets presently trying to rebound from their
lows, to begin to suggest the sector has bottomed out.
Remember that markets will start to react to anticipated
events, before they occur. That means the raw commodity
sector could start to rebound even though some more bad
economic news may be coming in the near term. Meantime,
Eurozone finance ministers are meeting Monday to try to
figure out how to implement the recently agreed upon
measures to stabilize the EU banking and financial system.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,363.60
and then at last week’s high of 1,374.90. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,341.10 and then at 1,325.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the June high of 2,628.25 and then
at Friday’s high of 2,644.75. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Friday’s low of 2,590.50 and then at 2,575.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Friday’s low of 12,645 and then at 12,600. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 12,733 and then at 12,750. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh five-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 150
16/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
150 even and then at the overnight low of 149 26/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh five-week high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 134.20.0 and then at the June high of 134.30.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 134.10.5 and
then at 134.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are poked to a fresh five-week high overnight and
then backed off on profit taking. The greenback bulls still
have some upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 83.63 and then at the June high of 84.00. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.33 and then
at 83.07. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher in early trading, on
short covering. An oil workers’ strike in Norway is
supportive for crude. Still, the crude oil market may have
put in a near-term low. In August Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $86.00 and then at
$87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were sharply higher in overnight trading. The major
weather market in the grains remains fully bullish for
prices. Corn and soybean crops continue to deteriorate amid
the key pollination growth stage for corn. Look for very
high volatility in the grain futures in the coming couple
weeks. The key “outside markets” are mildly bullish for the
grains early today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and
crude oil prices are slightly higher.
 

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