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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 1

Jun 01, 2012

Friday, June 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is awaiting the U.S. jobs report and the
key non-farm payroll employment number, due for release
Friday morning. Following Thursday’s spate of weaker-than-
expected U.S. economic data, there are concerns today’s
jobs report will show the same. Forecasters are calling for
non-farm payrolls to have risen by around 150,000 in May.
Any non-farms figure that deviates significantly will
likely shake the markets. The latest news headlines coming
out of the European Union sovereign debt crisis include
Irish voters approving the European Union’s fiscal treaty.
However, there was more weak manufacturing data coming out
of the EU Friday. Heading into the weekend there are some
worries that there could be public runs on the banks of
Spain and Italy. Indeed, there is still keen uncertainty
regarding the EU, as evidenced by German two-year bonds
presently providing negative yields. Meantime, U.S. 10-year
Treasury note yields hit a new all-time record low
overnight, on safe-haven investor demand. On top of all
this is more weak Chinese manufacturing data overnight that
prompted Asian stock markets to sell off. All this adds up
to a big “risk-off” trading day in the market place so far
Friday morning.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,307.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 1,318.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,291.50 and then at the May low of 1,287.40. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,522.00 and then at
Thursday’s high of 2,542.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,493.75 and then at 2,475.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,250 and then at 12,200. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,350 and then at
12,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices set another fresh contract
high overnight on safe-haven investment demand. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 151 1/32
and then at 151 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 149 29/32 and then at 149 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit another fresh contract
and all-time record high overnight. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight contract high of 134.12.0 and then at
134.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.30.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 133.14.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 7.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are higher in early trading on more safe-haven buying
and hit another nearly two-year high overnight. Bulls have
upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.85 and then at 84.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 83.62 and then at Thursday’s low of 83.26.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly lower early today and
hit another fresh seven-month low of $84.52 overnight. Bears
have strong downside technical momentum on their side. In
July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.52
and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading.
Recent rains for parts of the Corn Belt and Plains are a
bearish factor. However, longer-range forecast call for hot
and dry conditions in the Corn Belt. The key outside
markets are bearish for grains early today—higher U.S.
dollar index and solidly lower crude oil prices. Don’t be
surprised to see some short covering in the grains, heading
into the weekend—unless the key outside markets remain
fully bearish, which could keep prices under pressure
today.
 

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