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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 15

Jun 15, 2012

Friday, June 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is calm, yet cautious in early trading
Friday, ahead of the much-anticipated Greek elections on
Sunday, and after reports late Thursday that the major
central banks of the world stand at the ready to inject
liquidity into the world financial system should markets
become roiled after the Greek elections. There are rumors
polls are showing the pro-austerity party is poised for
victory. European and Asian stock markets were modestly
higher overnight as fears and worries were somewhat assuaged
by the central bank jawboning. After the Greek elections
attention will quickly turn to next week’s meeting of the
U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, which
will determine the next course of U.S. monetary policy. The
recent generally downbeat U.S. data has led to growing
expectations for further easing of U.S. monetary policy—
nicknamed “QE3.” Finally, today is “quadruple witching” day
in the U.S. stock indexes, whereby futures and options
expire today. That could add some volatility to the stock
indexes later today.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 1,341.00 and then at 1,350.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,324.40
and then at Thursday’s low of 1,305.80. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,552.75 and then at 2,570.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,533.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,505.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,600 and then at Wednesday’s low of 12,550. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,700 and then at 12,750. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s
high of 149 24/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 148 19/32 and then at
148 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s
high of 133.26.0 and then at 134.05.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.08.5 and then at
133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early trading and hit a fresh three-
week low overnight. The bulls have faded amid some profit
taking. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 82.27 and then at 82.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.02
and then at 81.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer in early trading today,
on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at $85.00 and then at
$86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$84.00 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The key
“outside markets” are bullish for the grains early today,
as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil prices are
firmer. Traders will continue to watch the updated Corn
Belt weather forecasts. While, the overall weather pattern
in the U.S. Corn Belt still tilts in favor of the bulls,
there are scattered rains in the forecast.
 

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