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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 19

Jun 19, 2012

Tuesday, June 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is a bit calmer Tuesday following the
weekend Greek elections that have at least temporarily
assuaged the European Union debt and financial crisis.
Traders are awaiting the start of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday
morning, which will determine the next course of U.S.
monetary policy. The meeting ends early Wednesday afternoon.
Recent downbeat U.S. data has led to growing expectations
for further easing of U.S. monetary policy. Most reckon the
Fed will implement some form of fresh easing of U.S.
monetary policy at this week’s meeting. In other news
Tuesday, the German economic expectations (ZEW) survey
declined at fastest rate in over a year. Spanish bond yields
are down from recent highs as there are rumors the European
Central Bank is stepping in to buy those bonds. Thursday’s
Spanish bond auction is anxiously awaited to see how well
subscribed it will be. There have been no major developments
yet coming from G-20 meeting in Mexico.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 1,327.50 and then at
1,305.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures:  Prices hit a fresh four-week high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at of 2,600.00 and then at 2,625.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,585.00
and then at 2,565.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,686 and then at Monday’s low of 12,630. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,750 and then at 12,800. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 150 9/32 and then at 150 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 149 16/32 and then at 149 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.31.0 and then at 134.05.5. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 133.16.0 and then at Monday’s low
of 133.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early trading. The bulls have faded a
bit. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 82.36 and then at 82.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 81.71 and
then at Monday’s low of 81.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are steady to firmer in early trading
today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In August Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$85.00 and then at Monday’s high of $85.89. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at
$82.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly higher in overnight trading. A
significant weather market is developing in the U.S. Corn
Belt and that has the bulls pumped up. Dry and hot weather
has sapped soil moisture over much of the region, with
another hot and dry day on top Tuesday. Weather forecasts
for the Corn Belt will be the trump card in the grains for
the next several weeks. The key “outside markets” are
mildly bullish for the grains early today, as the U.S.
dollar index is weaker and crude oil prices are steady to
firmer.
 

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