Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 21
Jun 21, 2012
Thursday, June 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The market place was disappointed with the results of the
U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting
that ended Wednesday afternoon. While most expected the
“Twist” operation would be extended, the significantly more
downbeat assessment of the U.S. economy from the Fed was a
bit of a surprise and sent fresh shudders through the market
place. Then overnight China announced weaker manufacturing
activity to further depress the market place. Asian and
European stock markets were weaker overnight, as are the
U.S. stock indexes. Most commodity markets are also under
selling pressure early today. Nymex crude oil dropped below
$80.00 a barrel. The FOMC and China manufacturing news have,
for the moment, overshadowed the festering European Union
sovereign debt crisis. Spanish bonds that were auctioned
Thursday saw EU era record-high yields fetched.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,356.80 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,343.10 and then
at this week’s low of 1,327.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of 2,628.25 and
then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,600.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 2,585.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,700 and then at Wednesday’s low of 12,665. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,800 and then at this week’s high of 12,830. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 149 even and then at 149 16/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 148 even and then at this week’s
low of 147 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 133.10.5 and then at Wednesday’s high of
133.19.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of
132.27.0 and then at the June low of 132.18.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
Prices are near steady in early trading. The bulls are
fading as prices have been trending lower for three weeks.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.93 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 82.28. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 81.39 and then at 81.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices weaker in early trading today and hit a
fresh 8.5-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. In August Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $82.00 and
then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $79.92 and then at $79.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Markets were lower in overnight trading, on profit taking
and amid overall commodity market weakness today. There
were some beneficial rains in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt
overnight. Still, a potentially serious weather market is
developing in the U.S. Corn Belt and that has the bulls
excited. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt will be the
trump card in the grains for the next several weeks. Grain
traders are also awaiting this morning’s weekly USDA export
sales data.
