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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--June 4

Jun 04, 2012

Monday, June 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is jittery early Monday morning, but the
tone is not as bad as many reckoned it could be following
Friday’s rout of the U.S. stock market after a very weak
U.S. jobs report issued Friday morning—and with the
European Union debt situation still fluid. Still, this will
be an extra important trading week. There are two key
events traders are awaiting this week: A European Central
Bank officials meeting on Wednesday, and U.S. Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before U.S.
lawmakers on Thursday. The market place is wondering if the
U.S. and/or EU will hint of further easing of their
monetary policies this week, in the wake of their recent
weaker U.S. economic data.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh five-month low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,287.40 and then at
1,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,262.30 and then at 1,250.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh four-month low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,475.00 and then at 2,500.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,433.75 and then at
2,425.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,050 and then at 12,000. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 12,150 and then at
12,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices set another fresh contract
and all-time high overnight on safe-haven investment demand.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 152
19/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 151 20/32 and then at 151 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
contract high of 134.30.5 and then at 135.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 134.10.0 and then at 134.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early trading on profit taking from
recent gains that saw prices hit a nearly two-year high on
Friday. Bulls still have upside technical momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 83.52 and then at Friday’s high of
84.00. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 83.12
and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly lower early today and
hit a fresh eight-month low of $81.21 overnight. Bears have
strong downside technical momentum on their side. In July
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$83.00 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $81.21 and then at
$81.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading, on short
covering and on drier U.S. Corn Belt weather forecasts as
traders come back from the weekend. The key outside markets
are mixed for grains early today—weaker U.S. dollar index
and lower crude oil prices. At present the Corn Belt
weather forecasts and the outside markets are exerting
about equal forces on the grain markets. That could make
for choppier trading in the grains in the near term.
 

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