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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

JIm's Morning Markets Report--Mar 1

Mar 01, 2013

Friday, March 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The U.S. government’s inability to agree on a taxing and
spending plan by the Friday, March 1, sequestration deadline
is being given credit for a “risk-off” day in the market
place early Friday. However, with the weaker stock indexes
Friday morning the culprit is more likely just profit taking
from recent strong gains. President Obama will meet with
congressional leaders Friday on the budget matters.  The
market place also got a mildly bearish read on fresh
manufacturing data coming out of China Friday. The official
purchasing managers’ index fell to 50.1 in February from
50.4 in January. A reading of 50.5 was expected. The
European Union and its sovereign debt problems have surfaced
again this week. The Italian elections a few days ago failed
to show a clear winner, creating uncertainty regarding
present government austerity measures. On Friday it was
reported the overall European Union had record unemployment
in January, at a collective 11.9%. It was also reported that
annual inflation in the EU fell to its lowest level in over
two years. Fresh US manufacturing data Friday was also
downbeat. That news helped to sink the Euro currency against
the U.S. dollar on Friday. However, the latest episode in
the EU debt crisis appears to be calming down just a bit at
late-week. U.S. economic data due for release Friday
includes personal income and outlays, the U.S. manufacturing
PMI, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, 
construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on
business, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto
industry sales.—Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are lower early today on some profit
taking. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Trading has turned volatile at higher price
levels recently, which is not bullish. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,524.30 and then
at the February high of 1,530.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,500.00 and then at 1,490.20. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on
some profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,741.50 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at 2,704.75 and then at this week’s low of 2,688.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are lower today. The bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the
higher volatility at higher price levels is a bearish clue
of a topping process. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 13,950 and then at 13,900. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 14,000 and
then at 14,050. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and
hovering not far below this week’s five-week high. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at this week’s high of 144 26/32 and then at
the January high of 144 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
144 even and then at the overnight low of 143 29/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and
hovering near a two-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 131.27.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.18.0 and
then at 131.11.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index higher early today and hit another
fresh six-month high overnight. The greenback bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 82.500 and then
at 82.750. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.000 and then
at the overnight low of 81.850. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today and hit a fresh two-
month low overnight. Bears have downside technical momentum.
In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $91.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at
$89.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight amid the “risk-off” trader
mentality in the market place. The key “outside markets are
also bearish today as the U.S. dollar index is higher and
crude oil prices are lower. There have also been better
moisture patterns in the central U.S. that are working to
alleviate the severe soil shortages in the region and
that’s bearish for the grain markets. I have turned more
bearish the grains just recently.
 

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