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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 12

Mar 12, 2013

Tuesday, March 12--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Spanish and Italian bond yields held
steady following successful government debt auctions in both
countries Tuesday. However, the Italian bond auction did see
the government’s borrowing costs rise to a three-month high,
reports said. The auctions came after the Fitch ratings
agency last Friday downgraded Italy’s credit rating. Another
Italian bond auction is slated for Wednesday. The U.S.
dollar hit a 3.5-year high against the Japanese yen
overnight amid reports the Bank of Japan will continue on
its aggressive monetary policy easing path. Asian stock
markets were pressured again Tuesday following the recent
spate of Chinese economic data that hints at slowing growth
and rising inflationary pressures. U.S. economic data due
for release Tuesday includes the Manpower quarterly U.S.
employment survey, the NFIB small business optimism index,
and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail
sales reports.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today but hovering
near a five-year high. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Monday’s high of 1,551.40 and then at 1,565.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,540.60
and then at 1,524.60. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading but
hovering near a five-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,808.00 and then at last week’s high of
2,817.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low
of 2,787.50 and then at 2,775.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near
Monday’s all-time record high. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of
14,310 and then at 14,265. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Monday’s record high of 14,376
and then at 14,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 141 16/32 and then at 142 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 141 even and then at the overnight
low of 140 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 130.15.0 and then at 130.23.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 130.08.0 and then at last week’s low of
130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as
prices hover not far below a seven-month high scored last
week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 83.060 and then at last
week’s high of 83.160. Shorter-term support is seen at
Monday’s low of 82.790 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $92.50 and then at $93.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $91.60
and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight. The soybean and corn
market bulls are gaining upside technical momentum. But the
wheat market bulls remain very weak, which is also keeping
a lid on price strength in corn and soybeans. Wheat will
have to show some significant price strength in the near
term in order for corn and soybeans to gain much more
upside power.
 

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