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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 13

Mar 13, 2013

Wednesday, March 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, a German two-year note auction saw the
notes (also called Schatz) fetch strong demand with a yield
of only 0.06%. This suggests there is a bit keener risk
aversion in the European market place, likely due to the
uncertainty regarding Italy’s recent elections and due to
recent downbeat economic data coming out of the European
Union. On Wednesday it was reported that factory output in
the 17 EU countries declined by 0.4% in January from
December. There is also an Italian bond auction set for
Wednesday, which will be closely monitored as a test of
investor appetite for the troubled country’s debt. The Fitch
credit ratings agency last week downgraded Italy’s credit
rating. European stocks were weaker on Wednesday. Asian
stocks were also down Wednesday amid the recent worries
about China’s economy slowing down. U.S. economic data due
for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, import and export price indexes, retail
sales, manufacturing and trade inventories and sales, the
monthly Treasury budget statement and the weekly DOE liquid
energy stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 1,551.40 and then at 1,565.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,540.60 and
then at 1,530.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on
profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,802.50 and then at last week’s high of 2,817.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
2,782.75 and then at 2,775.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking.
The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 14,345 and then at this week’s
low of 14,310. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Tuesday’s record high of 14,400 and then at
14,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on more
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 142
even and then at 142 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 141 13/32 and then at 141 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on more
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
130.23.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 130.12.5 and then at 130.08.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as
prices hover not far below a seven-month high scored last
week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Tuesday’s high of 83.060 and then at last
week’s high of 83.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.600 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls are
gaining a bit of upside momentum following recent gains.
In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $93.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of
$93.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $92.47 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. The soybean and corn market
bulls still have some upside technical momentum. But the
wheat market bulls remain very weak, which is also keeping
a lid on price strength in corn and soybeans. Wheat will
have to show some significant price strength in the near
term in order for corn and soybeans to gain much more
upside power.
 

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