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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 18

Mar 18, 2013

Monday, March 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

There has been a new twist to the European Union sovereign
debt crisis. Cyprus is in the spotlight to start the new
trading week. It appears Cypriot officials are considering
taxing savings accounts in their domestic banks as a part of
an overall banking bailout plan with the European Central
Bank and the International Monetary Fund. That, in turn,
prompted fears other financially troubled nations in the EU
could do the same at some point. The Cyprus parliament was
set to vote on the new measures Monday, but that vote was
reportedly rescheduled for Tuesday. This has not only
infuriated Cypriots with savings accounts, but also raised
fears of a "run" on those banks in the other economically
troubled EU countries. There were statements from EU
officials that said the Cyprus bailout package was a "one-
off" matter and that the savings tax would not be
implemented in other EU countries. But that did little to
assuage fears among EU citizens with savings deposits at
banks. The Cyprus savings account tax measure was apparently
not discussed with Russia, which has a major loan out to the
island nation in which Cyprus is trying to extend. The
Russians are not at all happy about being left out of the
new bailout plan, with Russian president Putin call it
unfair and dangerous. European and Asian stock markets, the
Euro currency and U.S. stock indexes were hit hard to the
downside on the Cyprus developments over the weekend.
Italian and Spanish bond yields rose Monday, which is a
further sign of increasing stress in the European Union.
Safe-haven assets benefited from the new uncertainty coming
out of the European Union, as the U.S. dollar index, U.S.
Treasuries and gold saw price rallies Monday. U.S. economic
data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB
housing market index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are solidly lower early today and
hit a fresh two-week low on the Cyprus and EU worries. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,545.30 and
then at last week’s high of 1,558.60. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,529.60
and then at 1,520.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a fresh two-
week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,778.75 and then at
2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,749.00 and then at 2,735.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,300 and then at
14,250. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 14,375 and then at 14,400. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher and hit a two-
week high early today on short covering and safe-haven
buying. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at 143 16/32 and then at the
overnight high of 143 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
142 24/32 and then at the overnight low of 142 10/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher and hit a
fresh two-week high overnight on short covering and safe-
haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 131.21.5 and then at the March high of 132.00.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.08.0 and
then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher early today on safe-
haven buying interest. The greenback bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high
of 83.180 and then at 83.250. Shorter-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 82.725 and then at 82.255. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today amid the "risk-off"
day in the market place and also pressured by the stronger
U.S. dollar. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $93.26
and then at last week’s high of $93.84. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $92.00 and then at $91.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight as the key "outside markets"
were bearish to start the new trading week—stronger U.S.
dollar index and weaker crude oil prices. The grain markets
have not been in near-term technical "synch" recently. That
suggests to me that more choppy and non-trending price
action is probable in the near term.
 

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