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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 19

Mar 19, 2013

Tuesday, March 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, markets were still jittery ahead of
Tuesday’s scheduled vote by the Cyprus parliament on the
controversial EU/IMF bailout package unveiled over the
weekend that included taxing savings accounts in domestic
banks.  European stocks were slightly lower and the Euro
currency was also slightly lower overnight. Asian stock
markets were firmer. There were no reported bank "runs" in
other EU countries Tuesday, which helped to calm trader and
investor worries on the matter. Cyprus banks remain closed
this week as the bailout measure is scheduled to be voted
upon Tuesday. The German ZEW economic expectations index
rose in March to its highest level in three years. However,
the report also warned of the uncertainty regarding the
EU/IMF bailout of Cyprus and the recent Italian election
uncertainty could harm the German economic recovery in the
coming weeks and months. Also Tuesday, Euro zone
construction output fell sharply in January, to its lowest
level since 1997. That report hints the Euro zone economy
continues in overall recession. Attention of the market
place is also turning to the Federal Open Market Committee
monetary policy meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which
starts Tuesday and ends Wednesday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
will hold a press conference following the meeting’s
conclusion Wednesday afternoon. Better U.S. economic data
released recently has the commodity market bulls worried the
Fed could start to tap the brakes on its very accommodative
monetary policies of the past few years. U.S. economic data
due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs
and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, new residential
construction, and the FOMC begins its two-day monetary
policy-setting meeting.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,552.10 and then at
last week’s high of 1,558.60. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,535.00 and then at this week’s low of
1,529.60. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Monday’s high of 2,797.00 and then at last week’s high of
2,815.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,770.00 and
then at Monday’s low of 2,749.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low
of 14,360 and then at 14,300. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 14,445 and
then at last week’s high of 14,465. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on more
short covering and some safe-haven buying. Bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 143 16/32 and then at Monday’s high of
143 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 142 24/32 and then at
the overnight low of 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were higher overnight on more
short covering and safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 131.15.0 and then at this week’s high
of 131.21.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.08.0 and
then at the overnight low of 131.02.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The
greenback bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week’s high of 83.180 and then
at 83.250. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of
82.625 and then at 82.255. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and poked
to a fresh three-week high overnight. In April Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $94.50
and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $93.50 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on some short covering. The
grain markets have been trading in divergent fashion
recently. That suggests to me that more choppy and non-
trending price action is probable in the near term. Grain
traders will continue to monitor the key "outside markets"
for direction. The very weak technical posture in wheat
suggests there may not be much room for upside movement in
corn and soybeans—until wheat shows some price strength.
 

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