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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 20

Mar 20, 2013

Wednesday, March 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Attention of the market place at mid-week has turned to the
Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting of the
U.S. Federal Reserve, which started Tuesday and ends
Wednesday at midday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a
press conference following the meeting’s conclusion
Wednesday afternoon. Better U.S. economic data released
recently has the commodity market bulls worried the Fed
could start to tap the brakes on its very accommodative
monetary policies of the past few years. The markets could
see immediate and significant price reactions to the
conclusion of the FOMC confab, if recent history repeats
itself. The controversial European Union/International
Monetary Fund bailout package for Cyprus unveiled over the
weekend that included taxing savings accounts in domestic
banks is still on the front burner of the market place at
mid-week. However, from a markets perspective the situation
has de-escalated since Monday morning.  European stocks were
higher and the Euro currency was firmer overnight. The
Cypriot finance minister reportedly had "constructive" talks
with his Russian counterpart on Wednesday. Late Tuesday the
Cyprus parliament voted down the EU/IMF bailout measure that
included the controversial savings account tax. The market
place was also somewhat assuaged by the European Central
Bank announcing late Tuesday that it would provide
liquidity, "within the rules," to the Cyprus financial
system. Still, Cyprus banks remained closed this week amid
the confusion. An auction of German 10-year bunds Wednesday
produced the lowest yield since last July, which underscores
the keener risk aversion in the market place this week. U.S.
economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly
MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE energy
stocks report, and the FOMC statement.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this
week’s high of 1,552.10 and then at last week’s high of
1,558.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,535.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,529.60. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,800.00 and
then at last week’s high of 2,815.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,772.50 and then at
this week’s low of 2,749.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 14,388 and
then at 14,360. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week’s high of 14,465 and then at 14,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
the bulls have gained some upside momentum this week.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 143 16/32 and
then at this week’s high of 143 31/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 143 even and then at Tuesday’s low of 142
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were lower overnight. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 131.24.0 and then at the March high of 132.00.5. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 131.08.0 and then at this week’s
low of 131.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The greenback
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at Tuesday’s high of 83.315 and then at 83.500.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.915
and then at this week’s low of 82.625. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum. In May Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$94.00 and then at this week’s high of $94.32. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at the
overnight low of $92.42. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on some more short covering.
The key "outside markets" are in a bullish posture for the
grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude
oil prices are higher. The grain markets have been trading
in divergent fashion recently. That suggests to me that
more choppy and non-trending price action is probable in
the near term. The very weak technical posture in wheat
suggests there may not be much room for upside movement in
corn and soybeans—until wheat shows some price strength.
 

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