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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 22

Mar 22, 2013

Friday, March 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Cyprus financial crisis continues to fester and the
market place remains uneasy about it. Russia had indicated
it could bail out Cyprus, but reports said talks between
Russian and Cyprus officials have ended without any
agreement. A second vote on a financial bailout plan by the
Cyprus parliament is scheduled for Friday. This plan would
involve bank restructuring and placing restrictions on
financial transactions. The European Central Bank says it
has funds ready for a Cyprus bailout, but insists there
needs to be an EU-backed financial plan in place by Monday.
There is now talk of Cyprus being booted out of the European
Monetary Union. The market place will head into the weekend
with keener uncertainty. There was more weak European Union
economic data released Friday, and it came from the
strongest country in the EU. German business confidence
showed a surprising drop in March after rising sharply in
February. The Ifo business confidence index dropped to 106.7
in March from 107.4 in February. The Euro zone remains mired
in economic recession, which along with the Cyprus financial
crisis has pushed the EU problems back to the front burner
of the market place. This has benefitted safe-haven assets
such as the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold. There is
no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still
have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at Thursday’s high of 1,550.50 and then at last week’s
high of 1,558.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,529.60 and then at 1,520.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s
high of 2,786.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,765.25 and then at
this week’s low of 2,749.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,360 and then at
Thursday’s low of 14,320. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 14,414 and then
at the record high of 14,470. Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-
day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on some
safe-haven demand heading into an uncertain weekend. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 143 31/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 143 16/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were firmer overnight on safe-
haven demand. Bulls and bears are presently on a level
near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.21.5 and then
at this week’s high of 131.24.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 131.08.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.02.5.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is weaker today on some profit taking.
The greenback bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.985 and
then at Thursday’s high of 83.185. Shorter-term support is
seen at 82.500 and then at this week’s low of 82.625.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls and bears are
back on a level near-term technical playing field. In May
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at Thursday’s high of $93.53 and then at $94.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $92.33 and then at this week’s low of
$91.84. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight. Corn and wheat market bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum, with
soybean bulls trying to regain some momentum after posting
good gains Thursday. Grain traders are looking ahead to
next week’s USDA planting intentions report, which is one
of the most important USDA grain reports of the year.
 

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