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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 26

Mar 26, 2013

Tuesday, March 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is still digesting the agreement reached
Monday among European Union finance ministers, the
International Monetary Fund and the Cyprus government on a
bailout for Cyprus’ banking system that kept the island
nation in the European monetary system.  Later in the day
Monday it was reported that a European Union finance
official said the Cyprus bailout measure could serve as a
template for future EU banking problems. That news initially
injected fresh uncertainty into the market place and
deflated European and U.S. stocks markets, while boosting
the U.S. dollar index. The EU finance official has since
back-tracked on his "template" statement. Banks in Cyprus
remain closed and are scheduled to reopen Thursday. This
latest flare-up in the European Union sovereign debt crisis
is a reminder of the enormity and severity of that
situation, overall. The EU debt crisis will remain an
underlying bullish factor for safe-haven assets like gold,
the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries for a long time to come.
Reason: Traders and investors worldwide, including in the
EU, are asking themselves, "Would I chance keeping my life-
long savings in a troubled currency (the Euro) and in a
shaky Euro zone financial system?" U.S. economic data due
for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the advance report on
durable goods, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, new
residential sales, the consumer confidence index, and the
Richmond Fed business survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
not far below Monday’s five-year high. Bulls have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,560.30 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Monday’s low of 1,539.20 and then at
last week’s low of 1,529.60. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and not
far below the recent six-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the March high of 2,817.50 and then
at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,784.50 and then at Monday’s low of
2,771.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
Monday’s all-time record high. Bulls have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at Monday’s low of 14,325 and then
at 14,300. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 14,488 and then at 14,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on the
better investor risk appetite to start the trading week.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 143
14/32 and then at last week’s high of 143 31/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 143 even and then at Monday’s low
of 142 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were weaker overnight. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 131.19.0 and then at Monday’s high of 131.24.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 131.08.0 and then at last week’s
low of 131.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Bulls were
impressive in recovering the index from its spike low seen
early Monday. The greenback bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Monday’s high of 83.110 and then at
83.250. Shorter-term support is seen at 82.750 and then at
82.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hovering near
Monday’s five-week high. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at Monday’s high of $95.65 and then at
$96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $94.67 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Corn and wheat
market bulls still some upside near-term technical
momentum, with soybean bulls trying to regain momentum
after posting good gains late last week. There were
freezing temperatures the past two days in the U.S. Plains
states, which may have damaged the HRW crop there. Grain
traders are looking ahead to Thursday’s USDA planting
intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports. The
plantings intentions report is one of the most important
USDA grain reports of the year. Trading in grain futures
markets is likely to be subdued ahead of Thursday’s batch
of important USDA data.
 

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