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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Mar 27

Mar 27, 2013

Wednesday, March 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Equities prices worldwide have been rallying recently, with
the U.S. Dow and S&P 500 stock index prices at or near
record highs. That bullish momentum in stocks is keeping
investor and trader money flowing into the stock markets at
the expense of most other investment assets, including raw
commodities and gold. Many investors and traders at present
reckon the stock market is the only game in town. However,
this situation will not proceed indefinitely. The rally in
the stock market is now very mature, which suggests most of
the easy money has already been made on the long side of
stocks, and that those now climbing on board the long side
of the stock market are chasing it. It’s never a good idea
to chase a market that is in a very mature trending move.
One very early clue that the stock market bulls are running
out of steam is price action in the U.S. Treasury bond and
note futures Wednesday morning. Both markets are posting
solid rallies, with U.S. T-Notes hitting a fresh 3.5-month
high. This suggests fresh flight-to-safety buying by
investors, which will pull way demand for risk assets like
stocks. Gold market bulls are disappointed the Cyprus bank
debacle did not offer more lasting support for the safe-
haven precious metal. There were no major developments in
the situation overnight, and Cyprus banks are set to reopen
Thursday. In other news, European Union consumer and
business confidence declined in the latest month, in another
sign the Euro zone economy is remains in the dumps. And the
surveys were taken before the Cyprus crisis, which suggests
Euro zone consumer and business confidence will not improve
in next month’s report. The approaching Easter holiday is
somewhat squelching trading interest in many markets this
week. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes
the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the pending
home sales index, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering
not far below Monday’s five-year high. Bulls have the firm
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,560.30 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at this week’s low of 1,539.20 and then at
last week’s low of 1,529.60. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today but not
far below the recent six-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,806.00 and then at the March high of 2,817.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
2,784.50 and then at this week’s low of 2,771.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today but hovering not
far below Monday’s all-time record high. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 14,400 and then at
13,350. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 14,488 and then at 14,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh four-week high. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but the bulls today have gained fresh
upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 144 20/32 and then at the March high of 144 29/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 144 even and then at today’s
low of 143 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were higher overnight and hit a
fresh 3.5-month high. Bulls today gained good upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.05.0 and then
at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.24.0 and
then at the overnight low of 131.19.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a fresh 7.5-month
high overnight. The greenback bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 83.500 and then at
83.750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
83.010 and then at Tuesday’s low of 82.880. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on profit taking
from good gains seen earlier this week. Prices Tuesday hit
a five-week high. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $96.00 and then at Tuesday’s high
of $96.45. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $95.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $94.67. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight. Corn and wheat market bulls
have some upside near-term technical momentum, with soybean
bulls also gaining a bit of momentum this week. Grain
traders are looking ahead to Thursday’s USDA planting
intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports. The
plantings intentions report is one of the most important
USDA grain reports of the year. Trading in grain futures
markets is likely to be subdued again Wednesday, ahead of
Thursday’s important USDA data.
 

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