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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 26

Mar 26, 2012

Monday, March 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

While the European Union sovereign debt crisis is simmering
again, with Spain in focus this week, it appears the market
place thinks the worst has past regarding the situation. Of
course, that thinking could change quickly. The recent
improving U.S. economic data has put the world market place
in a more “risk on” mentality, which is bullish for stocks
and most commodity markets. Very important markets to watch
for a gauge of investor risk appetite are the safe-haven
U.S. T-bond and T-note futures. Those two markets have been
in a sell off mode the past few weeks.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in last week’s high of 1,407.80
and then at 1,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,392.70 and then at last
week’s low of 1,381.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at last week’s high of 2,748.50 and
then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,729.00 and then at Friday’s low of
2,710.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,100 and then at 13,150. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 13,000 and then more
stops just below support at last week’s low of 12,940.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low
of 137 even and then at 136 24/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at 137 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 137
26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 129.00.0 and then at 129.08.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 128.20.0 and then at
128.13.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.94 and then at last week’s high of
80.19. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.47 and then at last week’s low of 79.32. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today.
Trading is choppy but bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $107.50 and then at $108.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $106.19 and then at $105.70. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The corn and
wheat bulls have faded recently and need to show fresh
power soon to avoid more significant near-term technical
damage. The key “outside markets” are in a mildly bearish
posture for grains, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and
crude oil prices are steady today. Traders are awaiting
Friday morning’s annual USDA planting intentions report,
which is arguably the most important USDA report of the
year for grains.
 

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