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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 27

Mar 27, 2012

Tuesday, March 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Many markets got a “Bernanke Boost” Monday when the Fed
chief hinted that U.S. monetary policy will remain easy and
interest rates will remain low. His remarks tended to
refute a somewhat growing notion in the market place that
the Fed may be forced to put on its monetary brakes due to
better U.S. economic data. But Bernanke said easier money
policy is needed to keep the labor skids greased and to
help ensure the economy keeps improving. This sent most
commodity markets and the stock market into rally modes.
What was telling, however, is the U.S. Treasuries (T-bonds
and T-Notes) did not react in a bullish fashion. This
suggests money (and lots of it) will continue to flow out
of the U.S. Treasuries and into stock and commodity
markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh 3.5-year high overnight.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,425.00 and then at 1,435.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and
then at Monday’s low of 1,392.70. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh 11-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,787.75 and then at 2,800.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at
Monday’s low of 2,729.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at the March high of 13,220 and then at 13,250.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
13,150 and then more stops just below support at 13,100.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low
of 137 10/32 and then at Monday’s low of 136 27/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at Monday’s high of 137 26/32 and
then at 138 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Monday’s high of 129.06.0 and then at last week’s high of
129.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
128.30.0 and then at Monday’s low of 128.20.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker early today and hit a
fresh four-week low overnight as the bulls are fading. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.23 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 78.93 and then at
the February low of 78.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today.
Trading is choppy but bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In May crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $107.50 and then at $108.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $106.67 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The corn and
wheat bulls have faded recently and need to show more power
soon to avoid more significant near-term technical damage.
Bean bulls remain strong. The key “outside markets” are in
a mildly bullish posture for grains, as the U.S. dollar
index is weaker and crude oil prices are steady today.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s annual USDA planting
intentions report, which is arguably the most important
USDA report of the year for grains.
 

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