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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 30

Mar 30, 2012

Friday, March 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Today is an extra important trading day, especially in the
grains. Friday is the last trading day of the month and of
the quarter, which is very significant, technically. Today
is also when USDA issues its annual planting intentions
survey and quarterly grain stocks report. How the grain
markets trade today could we set the tone for trading in
the grain markets for the next several weeks.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,419.60 and then at 1,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,396.90 and then
at this week’s low of 1,386.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at this week’s high of 2,790.25 and then at
2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,754.50 and then at Thursday’s low of 2,737.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,145 and then at this week’s high of 13,200.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
13,100 and then more stops just below support at 13,050.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at
the overnight low of 138 20/32 and then at Thursday’s low of
138 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Thursday’s high of
139 1/32 and then at 139 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at Thursday’s high of 129.31.0 and then at 130.08.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
129.24.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 129.13.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The bulls
are fading as prices hit a fresh four-week low overnight.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.22 and then at
Thursday’s high of 79.53. Shorter-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 78.87 and then at the February low of
78.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading modestly higher early today, on
a corrective bounce from strong selling pressure the past
two days that did produce near-term chart damage. Prices
Thursday hit a fresh six-week low. Bulls are fading. In May
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$104.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $102.50 and then at Thursday’s low of
$102.13. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading on short covering
from strong selling pressure on Thursday. The corn and
wheat bulls have faded badly recently and near-term
technical damage has been inflicted. Bean bulls remain
strong. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture
for grains this morning, as the U.S. dollar index is lower
and crude oil prices are firmer. Traders are keenly
anticipating this morning’s annual USDA planting intentions
and quarterly grain stocks report, which is arguably the
most important USDA report of the year for grains. Look for
volatile trading today in the grains.
 

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