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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--March 4

Mar 04, 2013

Monday, March 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The U.S. government March 1 budget sequestration deadline
has come and gone with no agreement between Democrats and
Republicans. There was no progress made on the matter among
politicians during the weekend. While this situation is not
unexpected, it has cast a bit of a pall over the market
place as the trading week gets under way. Last week’s
bearish read on manufacturing and property data coming out
of China also worries traders that the second-largest
economy in the world could be sputtering again. Meantime,
there is a meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels
beginning Monday to once again address their sovereign debt
crisis. Discussions will likely include Italy, following
last week’s elections that showed the country is wavering on
its pervious austerity commitments. European and Asian
stocks were mostly weaker Monday on the aforementioned
factors. Arguably the most important U.S. economic report of
the month, the employment situation report, is due out
Friday morning. U.S. economic data due for release Monday
includes the ISM New York report on business.—Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on some
profit taking. The bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s
high of 1,524.30 and then at the February high of 1,530.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and
then at 1,490.20. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on
some profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,746.25 and then at Friday’s high of 2,751.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,725.00 and then at Friday’s
low of 2,711.75. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower today. The bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,000
and then at Friday’s low of 13,925. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 14,090
and then at last week’s high of 14,125. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a
fresh six-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
January high of 144 30/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 144 even and then at 143 29/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hit a fresh nine-week high overnight. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.00.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.25.0 and
then at 131.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hovering
near a six-month high. The greenback bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 82.795
and then at 83.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.515 and then at 82.240. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices Friday
slumped to a nine-week low. Bears have downside technical
momentum. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $91.00 and then at $92.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then
at $89.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. There have been
better moisture patterns in the central U.S. that are
working to alleviate the severe soil shortages in the
region and that’s and underlying bearish factor for the
grain markets. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly
USDA export inspections report.
 

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