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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 11

May 11, 2012

Friday, May 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The big news of the week came after the markets closed
Thursday, when an embarrassed JP Morgan announced one of
its hot shot trader’s (the London whale) strategies had
gone awry--by $2 billion or more in just a few weeks’ time.
The markets were slapped into an even keener “risk-off”
mode on this massive trading loss by JP. Most market
traders Friday morning are exhibiting a “when in doubt, get
out” modality. Interesting how even “the smartest guys in
the room” (JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon) can get badly burned
by and made to look like fools by the market place. Such is
a stark reminder of the power and autonomy of markets, and
what happens to those who do not respect that power. There
is not one trader or investor in the market place, who has
been at it for any length of time at all, who has not been
humbled by the markets, including this market watcher.
However, we “little guys” have never been humbled to the
tune of 2 billion bucks.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,357.40 and then at this week’s high of 1,370.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,344.40 and then at the March low of 1,338.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 2,636.50 and
then at this week’s high of 2,648.25. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 2,600.00 and then at this week’s low of
2,583.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,760 and then this week’s low of 12,705. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,800 and then at 12,850. Shorter-term moving averages are
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Safe-haven buying is featured early
Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the 145 even
and then at the contract high of 145 8/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 144 20/32 and then at
144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.04.5 and then at the contract high of 133.08.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.28.0 and then at this week’s low of 132.17.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early trading and hit a fresh seven-
week high overnight as bulls still have upside momentum.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.48 and then at 80.75.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.28
and then at 80.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today as bears
still have downside technical momentum on their side after
prices hit a 4.5-month low Wednesday. A bearish pennant
pattern may now be forming on the daily bar chart. In June
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$97.00 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $95.74 and then at
this week’s low of $95.17. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on a “risk-off”
mentality in the market place and bearish outside markets—
firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices.
Soybeans are seeing some profit taking, while corn and
wheat bears are in firm technical command.
 

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