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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 15

May 15, 2012

Tuesday, May 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Famed investor Jimmy Rodgers said on CNBC Monday afternoon
that the selling pressure in many commodity futures markets
recently is partly due to JP Morgan liquidating at least
some of its long positions in commodity futures markets, in
light of its $2 billion derivatives trading loss. Latest
commitment of traders data from the CFTC does corroborate
major speculator long liquidation in many commodity futures
markets, especially crude oil.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit another fresh three-month low
overnight and then rebounded modestly on short covering. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
the overnight high of 1,346.30 and then at high of 1,363.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,332.40 and then at 1,325.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 2.5-month low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,611.00 and then at
2,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,581.50 and then at the March low of 2,575.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at the April low of 12,650 and then at Monday’s low
of 12,630. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 12,750 and then at 12,800. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh contract high
overnight and then backed off a bit. Safe-haven buying has
been featured recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight contract high of 146 20/32 and then at 147
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
145 25/32 and then at 145 16/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices matched Monday’s contract high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
contract high of 133.19.5 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.06.5 and
then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early trading and hit another two-
month high overnight. Bulls still have some upside momentum.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.89 and then at 81.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.63
and then at Monday’s low of 80.49. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. Prices
Monday hit a five-month low of $93.65. Bears still have some
downside technical momentum on their side. In June crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00
and then at Monday’s high of $95.83. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at Monday’s low of $93.65 and
then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering
and a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The
key outside markets are neutral early today—near steady
U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices. Bearish for grains
is generally favorable planting and growing weather in the
U.S. Corn Belt and some beneficial rains in the Plains.
 

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