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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 18

May 18, 2012

Friday, May 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The world market place is being impacted by a weaker-than-
expected business activity report from the Philadelphia
Federal Reserve on Thursday. That data came on the heels of
Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes that hinted further
quantitative easing of U.S. monetary policy is possible if
the economy were to continue its lethargic ways. The U.S.
and Asian stock markets sputtered in the wake of the Philly
Fed report, while European stock markets are trying to
stabilize following recent selling pressure related to the
EU debt crisis in their own back yard. There is now fresh
talk of further quantitative easing of U.S. monetary policy
(QE3). Such would arguably be commodity-market bullish and
possibly stock market bullish, despite the specter of
reduced demand prospects due to the sluggish economy. There
is still high anxiety in the market place, as the EU debt
crisis saga rolls on. Overnight, 16 Spanish banks were down-
graded by Moody’s. There is also talk in the market place
that U.S. banking heavyweight JP Morgan may have $100
billion in risky bonds in its risk-management portfolio. The
fact gold has started to rally strongly from its recent
selling pressure suggests that rally is more than just short
covering. Gold is also seeing decent safe-haven investment
demand late this week, heading into a weekend full of
trader/investor jitters. The fact that gold is rallying
strongly late this week also hints the market place is
feeling even higher anxiety.--Jim


U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh four-month low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,315.00 and then at
Thursday’s high of 1,330.30. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,300.00 and then at the overnight low
of 1,293.70. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 3.5-month low
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,530.00 and
then at 2,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,500.00 and then at the overnight low of 2,492.25. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh four-month low overnight.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
12,450 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,410. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,500 and
then at 12,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Some mild profit taking is seen today
following strong safe-haven buying recently. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract
high of 148 23/32 and then at 149 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 147 16/32 and then at 147 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
contract high of 133.27.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.16.5 and
then at 133.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early trading and hit another
four-month high overnight. Bulls have solid upside momentum
amid safe-haven buying. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
81.93 and then at 82.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
81.50 and then at 81.34. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady after hitting a
six-month low of $91.60 overnight. Bears still have downside
technical momentum on their side. In June crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $93.00 and then
at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $92.00 and then at $91.60. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. The key outside
markets are neutral for grains early today—near steady U.S.
dollar index and steady crude oil prices. Bearish for
grains is generally favorable planting and growing weather
in the U.S. Corn Belt. However, rainfall will be needed in
the region soon. Recent export demand for U.S. grains has
been strong and that’s a bullish factor for grains.
 

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