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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 31

May 31, 2012

Thursday, May 31--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

On this last trading day of the month (which makes Thursday
an extra important day, from a technical perspective),
there is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data released,
which could make for more active trading in many markets
today. The U.S. and European stock markets have stabilized
from their selling pressure seen on Wednesday. Here are the
latest news headlines coming out of the European Union
sovereign debt crisis. The European Central Bank chief
Draghi reiterates he wants comprehensive banking union in
EU. Spanish 10-year bond yields were above 6.5% late
Wednesday. Spanish bond yields above 6% are deemed
untenable. However, possibly the most poignant development
Thursday is news that St. Louis Federal Reserve president
Bullard has said in a speech in Japan overnight that the EU
debt crisis is “grave” and said EU leaders must act to
prevent a “major meltdown” of the world economies. Bullard
also said he is worried about the economic slowdown in
China. When a major U.S. banker and economist says that, it
only underscores how close the world is to a major
debt/financial contagion and/or economic calamity.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,325.00 and then at this
week’s high of 1,334.20. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,305.60 and then at
1,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,550.00 and then at this week’s high of
2,570.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s
low of 2,520.25 and then at 2,500.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,400 and then at Wednesday’s low of 12,380. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 12,460 and then at 12,500. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices set another fresh contract
high overnight on safe-haven investment demand. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 149 18/32
and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 148 17/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit another fresh contract
high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
contract high of 133.29.5 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.14.5 and
then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early trading on mild profit-taking
pressure after hitting a nearly two-year high on Wednesday.
Bulls still have upside technical momentum amid recent safe-
haven demand for greenbacks. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.50 and then at Wednesday’s high of 83.57. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 83.26 and then at
Wednesday’s low of 83.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early today on
tepid short covering after hitting a seven-month low of
$87.27 on Wednesday. Bears still have downside technical
momentum on their side. In July crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $87.27 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed but mostly lower in overnight
trading. Recent rains for parts of the Corn Belt and Plains
are a bearish factor, including some more precip in the
forecast. However, longer-range forecast call for hot and
dry conditions in the Corn Belt. The key outside markets
are mildly bullish for grains early today—slightly weaker
U.S. dollar index and slightly firmer crude oil prices.
 

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