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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--May 4

May 04, 2012

Friday, May 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Market action today will be dictated by this morning’s U.S.
jobs report. The key non-farm payroll figure is forecast to
come in at up 168,000 in April. Any figure that deviates
significantly from that number will likely move many
markets. The sense of the market place heading into the
report is that the data will disappoint. If a significantly
weaker jobs number is printed today, then renewed talk of
further quantitative easing will occur. Recent, mostly weak
economic data coming out of the U.S., Europe and China is
keeping the monetary easing option “on the table.”
Interestingly, a weaker U.S. jobs number and the QE3 talk
that would follow would likely be deemed commodity-market-
bullish. Remember, however, significantly weaker economic
growth worldwide would reduce demand for raw commodities
and would likely be more longer-term bearish for
commodities than any QE would be shorter-term bullish.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s
high of 1,402.50 and then at this week’s high of 1,411.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,383.20 and then at 1,371.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,710.00 and then at
2,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,689.75 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Thursday’s low of 13,120 and then 13,070. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 13,200 and then at Thursday’s high of
13,220. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s
low of 142 9/32 and then at this week’s low of 141 30/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at 143 even and then at this
week’s high of 143 6/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s
high of 132.09.5 and then at the contract high of 132.17.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at this week’s low of 131.27.5
and then at 131.19.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today,
on safe-haven buying interest and more short covering. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 79.53 and then at 79.75. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 79.21 and then at
79.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading solidly lower early today and
hit a fresh 11-week low overnight. Bulls have quickly faded
badly. In June crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $102.00 and then at the overnight high
of $102.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading on some short
covering and a corrective bounce from recent selling
pressure. The key outside markets are bearish early today
as the U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer and crude oil
prices are solidly lower. Soybean bulls remain strong, but
corn and wheat bulls have faded badly this week. Focus will
be on the Corn Belt weather forecasts for the next several
weeks.
 

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