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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 15

Nov 15, 2012

Thursday, November 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks were lower on fresh
economic news that suggested the European Union countries
are in collective recession. Gross domestic product in the
Euro zone decreased 0.4% in the third quarter, on an
annualized basis, to mark the second straight quarter of
decline and four quarters of no growth in the zone. The
major economies of Germany and France did show modest growth
in the third quarter, which did mitigate the overall
contraction in the Euro zone. Asian stocks declined
overnight, in part on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” worries.
Negotiations and machinations from the U.S. lawmakers on the
matter will be very closely scrutinized and parsed in the
coming few weeks. It is likely that Democrats and
Republicans will reach some form of agreement on the matter
before the end of the year—but not without drama in the
meantime. On the geopolitical front, Israel’s assassination
of the Hamas military leader Wednesday and Israel’s pledge
to take out more Hamas leaders has the Middle East region
even more uneasy. This would be an underlying bullish
supportive factor for safe-haven gold, the U.S. dollar and
U.S. Treasuries should military action in that region
escalate.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today and
hovering near a 3.5-month low. Bears still have some
downside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,358.90 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,349.70 and then at
1,340.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today and
are hovering near a 3.5-month low. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,550.00 and then at
2,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,525.00 and
then at the July low of 2,516.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near
a 3.5-month low. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 12,500 and then at 12,450. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,600 and
then at 12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and are
seeing some profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 152
7/32 and then at this week’s high of 152 15/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 17/32 and
then at this week’s low of 151 10/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on
profit taking. The bulls still maintain the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.03.0 and
then at last week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.26.0 and then at
this week’s low of 133.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today and hovering near a two-month high. Bulls have
upside near-term momentum on their side. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s
high of 81.32 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 81.09 and then at this week’s
low of 80.94. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $87.00 and then at $87.50. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at
$85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly weaker in overnight trading.
The grain market bears still have some downside momentum.
Fresh near-term chart damage has been inflicted in soybean,
corn and wheat futures this week. My bias is still that
there is not strong selling pressure left in the grain
markets at present price levels.
 

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