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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 16

Nov 16, 2012

Friday, November 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks and the Euro currency
were weaker ahead of the Friday “fiscal cliff” talks
scheduled between President Obama and congressional leaders.
The fiscal cliff matter—which is a package of tax hikes and
spending reductions that will go into effect in January if
no budget deal is reached between the Obama administration
and Congress—has overshadowed significant issues that would
likely be on the front burner of the market place at
present. Those issues include potential further easing of
U.S. monetary policy (QE4) in upcoming FOMC meetings, the
European Union sovereign debt crisis, a Chinese leadership
change, and rising tensions between Israel and Hamas. Early
next week the EU debt crisis will be in keener focus, as
there is a meeting of Euro zone officials next Tuesday on
when to disburse the next tranche of bailout money to cash-
starved Greece, and on what terms Greece will be held in
order to receive the money. It’s a messy matter. If EU
officials write off too much Greek debt, then other
financially troubled EU countries will want the same.
Regarding the tensions in the Middle East, Israel appears to
be taking a very hard line against Hamas, including the
likelihood of moving ground troops into the Gaza strip. Such
could agitate Egypt and further inflame Iran. The situation
could escalate quickly, which would in turn likely produce
significant safe-haven demand for gold, the U.S. dollar and
U.S. Treasuries.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and
hit a fresh 3.5-month low overnight. Bears still have 
downside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s
high of 1,358.90 and then at 1,375.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,344.70
and then at 1,330.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today and are
hovering near a 4.5-month low. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of
2,541.00 and then at 2,560.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,500.00 and then at 2,475.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near
a 3.5-month low. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Thursday’s low of 12,465 and then at
the July low of 12,425. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 12,560 and then
at 12,600. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today and are
hovering near a 3.5-month high. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 152 15/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 27/32 and
then at 151 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. The
bulls still maintain the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s
high of 134.06.5 and then at 123.10.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.30.0 and then at
this week’s low of 133.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today and hovering near a two-month high. Bulls have
upside near-term momentum on their side. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s
high of 81.32 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 81.08 and then at this week’s
low of 80.94. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage as a two-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at
last week’s low of $84.05. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The grain market
bears still have some downside momentum as trader and
investor attitudes have turned risk-averse recently. Fresh
near-term chart damage has been inflicted in soybean, corn
and wheat futures this week. Traders will closely
scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
 

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