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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 6

Nov 06, 2012

Tuesday, November 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Tuesday is a bit of a “risk-on” trading day in the market
place, despite the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential
election results, which are likely to be known by Wednesday
morning. In overnight news, European stocks were up slightly
despite some fresh downbeat economic news coming out of the
European Union Tuesday. European market watchers are now
looking to a Greek parliamentary vote on fresh austerity
measures which is scheduled for Wednesday. The European
Central Bank holds its monthly meeting on Thursday. There is
a general leadership conference in China later this week, at
which time new leaders in China will be selected.
Australia’s central bank also met Tuesday to discuss its
monetary policy and made no major changes. Many thought the
Australian central bank would ease monetary policy. U.S.
economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly
Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports and
the global services PMI.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week’s high of 1,431.30 and then at 1,440.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,409.90 and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
last week’s high of 2,694.00 and then at 2,705.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,653.25
and then at this week’s low of 2,634.75. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 13,050 and
then at 13,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,150 and then at 13,200. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today.
Trading remains choppy but the bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 149 8/32 and then at Monday’s high of 149
15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
148 18/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today but
the bulls maintain the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high
of 133.07.5 and then at 133.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 132.29.0 and then at Monday’s
low of 132.25.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading today on some profit taking from recent gains. Bulls
have gained good upside momentum recently. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.00 and
then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low
of 80.59 and then at 80.42. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today on short covering
after prices hit a four-month low on Monday. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage as a seven-
week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $87.00 and then at $87.50. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$85.42 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading on short covering
and bargain hunting. The key outside markets are modestly
bullish for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is weaker and crude oil prices are firmer. It is my
bias that the grain markets do not have strong downside
price potential and are likely to work sideways to higher
in to the end of the year.
 

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