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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Nov. 8

Nov 08, 2012

Thursday, November 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the Bank of England kept its key interest
rates unchanged, which was expected. The European Central
Bank held its monthly meeting on Thursday. The ECB is not
expected to make any big changes to monetary policy.
However, ECB president Draghi’s press conference will be
closely monitored for fresh clues on ECB policy. The Greek
parliament did pass fresh austerity measures for that
nation, but violent public protests occurred in Athens in
reaction. It was reported Thursday that Greece’s
unemployment rate rose to 25.4% in August. There is fresh
speculation Spain will not ask for a financial bailout from
the European Union this year. Many European Union watchers
want Spain to seek assistance because it would trigger the
European Central Bank’s bond-buying program and help to
lower borrowing costs for financially troubled EU countries.
All of the above drove the Euro currency on Thursday to a
fresh two-month low against the U.S. dollar. There is a
general leadership conference in China starting Thursday.
The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
will select a new generation of leaders over the next week.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report and the international trade
report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today, as
the market tries to consolidate after big losses Wednesday.
The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,400.00 and then at 1,415.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s
low of 1,384.30 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today on some
short covering. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,625 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 2,599.00 and then at
2,575.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on short covering
and consolidation. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Wednesday’s low of 12,830 and then at
12,800. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 12,950 and then at 13,000. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today
on mild profit taking after prices hit a two-month high on
Wednesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s
high of 150 19/32 and then at 151 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 149 31/32 and then at
149 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today
and hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The bulls
maintain the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 133.24.0 and then at 133.27.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 133.14.0 and then at 133.08.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading today and hit another fresh two-month high
overnight. Bulls have good upside momentum on their side.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 81.11 and then at 81.25.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.82
and then at 80.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today on a corrective
bounce from Wednesday’s big losses. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old
downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In December
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.51
and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were slightly higher in overnight trading, on some
chart consolidation. Traders are awaiting this morning’s
weekly USDA export sales report and Friday morning’s USDA
monthly supply and demand report on the grains. It is my
bias that the grain markets do not have strong downside
price potential and are likely to work sideways to higher
in to the end of the year.
 

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