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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 17

Nov 17, 2011

Thursday, November 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Here is my present near-term market bias: Choppy, non-trending
and sideways price action into the end of the year for most
markets. The caveat is the European Union debt crisis. Any
serious escalation in that crisis would lead to a “when in doubt,
get out” trader mentality that would pressure most markets,
except the U.S. dollar index, U.S. bonds and notes, and maybe
gold.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,241.60 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 1,258.60. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at last week’s low of 1,218.80 and then at the November
low of 1,208.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,332.75 and then at 2,350.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,298.00 and then at the
November low of 2,279.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,750 and then more stops just below support 11,695.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,900
and then at 11,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 8/32
and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the November
high of 143 4/32 and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 131.00.0 and
then at the October high of 131.12.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 130.17.5 and then at 130.08.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer again in early trading
today and hit another fresh five-week high overnight. Dollar
index bulls have gained good upside momentum this week. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 78.69 and then at 79.00. Shorter-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 78.23 and then at 78.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower today on profit taking from
recent strong gains. Prices did hit a five-month high of $103.37
overnight. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. In
December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $102.00 and then at $103.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $99.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets”
are bearish for grains early today—-firmer U.S. dollar index and
lower crude oil and stock index prices. Trading has turned choppy
in the grain markets recently, with soybeans the weak sister. My
bias is still that there is not strong downside price pressure
left in the grains. Traders will scrutinize this morning’s weekly
USDA export sales report.
 

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