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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 18

Nov 18, 2011

       Friday, November 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a little surprising to see the market place has stabilized
Friday morning. Thursday’s strong selling pressure in many
markets exhibited a “when in doubt, get out” trader mentality,
due to the keener uncertainty regarding the European Union
sovereign debt crisis, which did appear to escalate a bit
Thursday. If recent history repeats itself, the EU debt crisis
will continue to roil the market place. Many traders will not
want to be holding big, risky positions heading into this
weekend.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at Thursday’s high of 1,241.60 and then at Wednesday’s
high of 1,258.60. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at
Thursday’s low of 1,206.50 and then at 1,200.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,300.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 2,332.75. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 2,256.00 and then at
2,225.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,800 and then more stops just below support 11,750.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Thursday’s high of 11,910 and then at 11,950. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 6/32
and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 143 even and
then at the overnight high of 143 19/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the November high of 131.00.0 and
then at the October high of 131.12.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 130.10.5 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today,
on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Dollar index bulls
still have some overall upside near-term technical momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 78.00 and
then at 78.42. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 77.74 and then at 77.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher today on a corrective bounce
from big losses Thursday. Trading has turned volatile and choppy
at higher levels, which is not bullish. Bulls do still have the
near-term technical advantage. In December crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$100.15 and then at $101.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $99.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on some tepid
short covering from big losses Thursday that did produce fresh
chart damage in the grains. The key “outside markets” are bullish
for grains early today—-lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude
oil and stock index prices. Despite Thursday’s selling pressure I
still would be surprised to see more solid downside price
pressure in the grains, with prices at present levels.
 

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