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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 22

Nov 22, 2011

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

 

The U.S. dollar index is in a near-term uptrend and bulls remain
in technical command. The resurgent value of the greenback has
been a bearish weight on the raw commodity sector. However,
unless the European Union debt crisis seriously escalates, it’s
likely that the uptrend in the dollar index will peter out soon.
One major bearish factor for the U.S. dollar remains the very
stimulative monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls have faded recently. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,209.00 and
then at 1,229.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at
the overnight low of 1,187.20 and then at Monday’s low of
1,181.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average
is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,226.75 and then
at Monday’s high of 2,244.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,200.00 and then at Monday’s low of 2,187.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support Monday’s
low of 11,425. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 11,600 and then at Monday’s high of 11,620.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average
is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
support lies at the overnight low of 142 28/32 and then at 142
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 143 16/32
and then at Monday’s high of 143 24/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.00.5
and then at the November high of 130.08.5. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 129.22.0 and then at 129.15.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, on
a corrective, profit-taking pullback after hitting a six-week
high on Monday. Dollar index bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week’s high of 79.00 and then at
79.37. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.37 and then at 78.00.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher today on a corrective bounce
from recent selling. Trading has turned volatile and choppy at
higher levels, which is not bullish. Bulls do still have the
near-term technical advantage, but have faded. In January crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $99.00 and
then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $97.50 and then at $97.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. The key "outside
markets" are bullish for grains early today—-weaker U.S. dollar
index and firmer crude oil and stock index prices. Fresh
technical damage has been inflicted in the grain markets recently
as traders have been spooked by the EU debt crisis. Traders are
presently paying more attention to the outside markets than to
the overall supply and demand fundamentals of the grain markets.

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