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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Oct. 17

Oct 17, 2012

Wednesday, October 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a bit more of a “risk-on” trading day in the market
place early Wednesday. In overnight news, Asian and European
stock markets rose, partly due to Moody’s latest
announcement that it has left Spain’s credit rating
unchanged. Many had feared the ratings agency would lower
Spain’s credit rating to junk status. Meantime, reports said
Spain is moving closer to formally asking the European Union
for further financial assistance. Spanish bond yields fell
to six-month lows overnight. The Euro currency on Wednesday
was boosted following those developments. Also overnight the
German government cut its economic growth forecast for 2013,
while slightly raising its projection for growth this year.
Germany’s economy minister said the European Union debt
crisis is dampening economic growth in Europe. He forecast
German economic growth at 1% in 2013, a downward revision
from the 1.6% growth forecast the government had issued
earlier. Germany’s 2012 economic growth rate was pegged at
0.8%, from a 0.7% rate predicted earlier. The market place
is awaiting key events on Thursday. China is expected to
issue its third-quarter gross domestic product data, while
the EU leaders summit begins Thursday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls are
regaining momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,460.00 and then at the
September high of 1,467.50. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,446.30 and then
at Tuesday’s low of 1,435.20. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer early
today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Tuesday’s high of 2,777.25 and then at 2,800.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,750.00 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 2,729.75. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 13,415 and then at 13,365. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Tuesday’s high of 13,485 and then at 13,500. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bulls
are fading again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 148 even and
then at the overnight high of 148 6/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 147 13/32 and then at
147 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.26.5 and
then at 133.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 132.17.0 and then at 132.10.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading today. Bears have regained downside momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.27 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term
support is seen at the September low of 78.72 and then at
78.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $92.00 and then at $92.50. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$91.96 and then at Tuesday’s low of $91.30. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading, on more
short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The weaker
U.S. dollar index is supportive for the grains again today.
All three grains are on the verge of technical breakdowns,
should more selling pressure occur soon. Such would suggest
a fresh leg down in prices. If the grains can rebound from
present price levels then more serious chart damage would
be avoided and traders would become more confident harvest
lows are in place.
 

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