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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Oct. 18

Oct 18, 2012

Thursday, October 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, China’s third-quarter gross domestic
product came in at 7.4% growth, on an annual basis—the
lowest growth rate since 2009 and the seventh quarter in a
row of a decreasing growth rate.  The second-quarter GDP
number came in at 7.6%, on an annual basis. The latest
figure was in line with market expectations. Asian stock
markets showed a muted but slightly positive reaction to the
latest China economic news, as market watchers there
reckoned the Chinese economy is now on a good trajectory
following recent stimulus efforts by the Chinese central
bank. Market attention is also on a two-day European Union
leaders summit that began Thursday. Focus regarding the EU
debt crisis is on when or if Spain will formally ask for
more EU financial assistance. Falling Spanish bond yields
this week, amid good demand at their debt auctions, hint
that Spanish officials may not be in a hurry to seek
financial assistance from the EU. U.S. economic data due for
release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report,
leading economic indicators index and the Philadelphia Fed
business survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls have
regained upside momentum this week. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the September high of
1,467.50 and then at 1,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,446.30 and then at
Tuesday’s low of 1,435.20. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s
high of 2,777.25 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 2,753.50 and then at
2,740.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Wednesday’s low of 13,440 and then at 13,400. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 13,500 and then at 13,550. Shorter-term
moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit a
fresh four-week low early today. Bears have gained fresh
downside technical momentum this week. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at 147 even and then at 147 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 146 10/32 and then at
146 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a
fresh four-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 132.07.0 and then at
132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.31.0 and then at 131.23.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today, on short covering. Bears still have  some
downside momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 79.27 and then
at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 79.03 and then at the September low of 78.72. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field, amid
choppy trading. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of
$92.24 and then at this week’s high of $92.85. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $91.30 and then at
$90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on more short
covering and perceived bargain hunting. Traders will
scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
All three grains are on the verge of technical breakdowns,
should more selling pressure occur soon. Such would suggest
a fresh leg down in prices. If the grains can rebound from
present price levels then more serious chart damage would
be avoided and traders would become more confident harvest
lows are in place.
 

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