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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 15

Oct 15, 2012

Monday, October 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a bit of a “risk-off” trader/investor mentality in the
market place to start the new trading week. In overnight
news, European and Asian stocks digested news that China’s
consumer inflation came in a bit lower than expected in the
latest batch of Chinese economic data. That prompted
speculation among traders that China’s central bank may have 
more leeway in further easing monetary policy. China’s trade
surplus also grew in September, which suggests domestic
demand in China is on the upswing. However, the weekend
China data also showed bank lending growth weaker than
expected in September. Asian and European stocks showed
mixed reactions to the China data, as European stocks were
somewhat supported while Asian stocks were narrowly mixed.
Third-quarter GDP data from China is due on Thursday. On the
European Union sovereign debt front it’s Greece’s turn to be
in the spotlight this week, as EU officials cannot seem to
agree on how or when to provide the next tranche of bailout
funds to the financially troubled country. Spain and its
leaders’ reluctance to ask for fresh EU financial assistance
is also a concern to the market place and is making for a
more risk-averse overall trader/investor mentality Monday.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the
Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, and
manufacturing and trade inventories.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early but did hit a fresh
five-week low early on today. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,434.40
and then at 1,439.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,416.30 and then at
1,410.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer but hit another
fresh two-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,740.00 and then at 2,750.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,705.00 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,255 and then at Friday’s low of 13,225. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 13,330 and then at 13,370. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 149 26/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 149 even and then at Friday’s low of 148
26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker early
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.13.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.17.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 133.00.0 last week’s low of
132.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading today. The greenback bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
80.04 and then at last week’s high of 80.31. Shorter-term
support is seen at 79.57 and then at last week’s low of
79.43. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls and
bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field.
In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $92.50 and then at $93.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$90.82 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly lower in overnight trading.
Last week’s bullish USDA report is quickly fading to the
background. Ideas of increased corn and soybean plantings
in South America are bearish for those futures markets
today.
 

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