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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 16

Oct 16, 2012

Tuesday, October 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European Union economic data showed Euro
zone inflation was unchanged in September, at a 2.6% annual
rate. The German ZEW economic expectations index rose in
September, suggesting less risk for the German economy. The
market place is awaiting the latest GDP report from China,
due out Thursday. EU officials will also meet in Brussels
Thursday to once again discuss the EU debt crisis. The Euro
currency did get some support Tuesday on reports Spanish
officials may be considering making a formal request to the
EU for financial assistance. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales data, the consumer price index,
Treasury international capital data, industrial production
and capacity utilization, and the NAHB housing market
index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
1,450.00 and then at 1,460.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,425.00 and then at Monday’s low of
1,416.30. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,750.00 and
then at 2,762.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,729.75 and then at Monday’s low of
2,705.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,359 and then at 13,300. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,400 and then at
13,450. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 15/32 and
then at this week’s high of 149 26/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 148 16/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.11.0 and
then at last week’s high of 133.17.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at 133.00.0 and then at last week’s low of
132.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S.
trading today. The greenback bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
79.81 and then at this week’s high of 80.04. Shorter-term
support is seen at last week’s low of 79.43 and then at the
October low of 79.18. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $92.50 and then at $93.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$91.44 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering
and perceived bargain hunting. The weaker U.S. dollar index
is also supportive for the grains early today. All three
grains are on the verge of technical breakdowns, should
more selling pressure occur soon. Such would suggest a
fresh leg down in prices. If the grains can rebound from
present price levels then more serious chart damage would
be avoided and traders would become more confident harvest
lows are in place.
 

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