Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 18
Oct 18, 2011
Tuesday, October 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It looks like a “risk off” day in the market place so far
Tuesday, as U.S. stock indexes and most commodity markets are
lower, while the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasuries are
higher. Trading has been choppy and sideways in many markets for
the past couple weeks, or longer.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are stilll bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at 1,200.00 and then at 1,214.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,180.00 and then at 1,160.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,332.75 and then at 2,350.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,311.75 and
then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,200 and then more stops just below support at
11,150. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 11,300 and then at 11,350. Shorter-term moving averages are
still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-
day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term support lies at 140 even and then at the
overnight low of 139 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 140 18/32 and then at 141 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.05.0
and then at 129.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low
of 128.16.5 and then at 128.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today.
Bulls are making a modest recovery this week. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
77.78 and then at 78.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 77.24 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. The bulls
still have some upside technical momentum to suggest prices can
continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. In
November crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $87.00 and then at Monday’s high of $88.18. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at $86.0 and then at
the overnight low of $85.55. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grains will continue to
be heavily influenced by the key “outside markets,” and they are
in a mostly bearish posture early this morning--the U.S. dollar
index is firmer, crude oil is steady-weak, and the U.S. stock
indexes are mostly weaker. There is still some harvest pressure
occurring in the corn and soybean futures markets.
