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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 2

Oct 02, 2012

Tuesday, October 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Trading overseas overnight was fairly quiet. The Reserve
Bank of Australia did cut its interest rate by 0.25%, to
3.25%. Euro zone economic data released Tuesday showed
producer price inflation rose sharply in August, mainly due
to higher oil prices. The annual rise in producer prices
came in at a 2.7% rate versus 1.6% in July. China is on
holiday this week, celebrating Golden Week. Later this week
there will be some more important U.S. economic data
released, including the FOMC minutes on Thursday and the
employment report on Friday. The market place will also
monitor the U.S. presidential debate Wednesday night. In
Europe, the European Central Bank and Bank of England hold
meetings Thursday. The Bank of Japan holds its monthly
meeting Thursday and Friday. U.S. economic data due for
release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York
report on business, and domestic auto industry sales.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,451.20 and then at last week’s high of 1,456.60. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,436.50 and then at last week’s low of 1,424.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Monday’s high of 2,822.50 and then
at 2,835.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,786.25 and then at Monday’s low of
2,777.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 13,420 and then at 13,395. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,500 and then at Monday’s high of 13,525. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker today but bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149
30/32 and then at last week’s high of 150 9/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at Monday’s low of 149 3/32 and then
at 149 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early
today. Bulls still have some momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.21.0 and then
at last week’s high of 133.27.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at Monday’s low of 133.11.5 and then at 133.04.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Monday’s high of 80.25 and then at
80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 79.67
and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls and
bears are presently on a level near-term technical playing
field. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $92.92 and
then at Monday’s high of $93.33. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at the overnight low of $92.04 and
then at Monday’s low of $91.26. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. Corn Bulls had
some fresh upside technical momentum but cannot seem to
show that important follow-through strength early this
week, to then suggest price can trend higher. Soybean bulls
are struggling, while wheat bulls are also fading. It’s my
bias that all three major grains have put in major tops.
 

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