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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 20

Oct 20, 2011

Thursday, October 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log *

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The raw commodity sector is generally lower Thursday, as the market place is nervous ahead of this weekend’s European Union summit to address the EU debt and financial crisis. While the EU debt situation has been commodity market bearish in recent weeks, or longer, my longer-term view is that the situation will be commodity market bullish. Reason: EU officials will have to work to inflate the EU economy, just as the U.S. has done to its economy. Inflation, via more Euros and greenbacks being printed by the central banks, is bullish for the commodity markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,216.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,230.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,201.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,185.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,332.75 and then at 2,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 2,305.75 and then at 2,275.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 11,410 and then more stops just below support at 11,350. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,500 and then at Wednesday’s high of 11,570. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 139 2/32 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 138 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.05.0 and then at this week’s high of 129.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128.20.0 and then at 128.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.72 and then at this week’s high of 77.85. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.97 and then at this week’s low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today after hitting another fresh four-week high on Wednesday. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum to suggest prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $87.12 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.31 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Grains will continue to be influenced by the key "outside markets" and the uncertainty of the EU debt crisis. There is still some harvest pressure occurring in the corn and soybean futures markets, but cash basis levels for corn and soybeanws have narrowed, which is a bullish clue for the futures. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data.

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