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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 21

Oct 21, 2011

Friday, October 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Commodity markets are seeing a general rebound in prices Friday morning, as trading in most commodities has been less trending and more choppy recently. My view of many commodity markets is that their present price values will be viewed as value buys in the months ahead.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,208.30 and then at this week’s low of 1,185.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18- day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 2,332.75 and then at 2,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,296.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 2,268.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 11,500 and then more stops just below support at 11,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of 11,590 and then at 11,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 U.S.

TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 138 even and then at this week’s low of 137 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 139 8/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.26.5 and then at this week’s high of 129.09.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 127.21.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 77.50 and then at this week’s high of 77.85. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 76.70 and then at 76.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today. Prices reached the top of a well-defined trading range on the daily chart and then backed down. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.95 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are bullish early today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer. There is still some harvest pressure occurring in the corn and soybean futures markets, but cash basis levels for corn and soybeanws have narrowed, which is a bullish clue for the futures.

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