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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 25

Oct 25, 2011

Tuesday, October 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s another "risk on" day in the market place today as many commodity markets are seeing follow-through buying strength from gains posted Monday. The market place is presently viewing Wednesday’s European Union leaders meeting as a pivotal event that will turn the tide on the EU debt and financial crisis. Now, the risk arises the market place’s rosy expectations may not be met at Wednesday’s meeting.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: Prices hit another fresh 11-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18- day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,260.00 and then at 1,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,242.10 and then at Monday’s low of 1,227.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18- day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the October high of 2,388.50 and then at 2,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,365.50 and then at 2,350.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit another fresh 11-week high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 11,825 and then more stops just below support at Monday’s low of 11,775. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,950 and then at 12,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 137 18/32 and then at the October low of 137 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 138 even and then at the overnight high of 138 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 December U.S.

T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 128.16.0 and then at Monday’s high of 128.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.00.0 and then at the October low of 127.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today and hit another fresh six-week low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.46 and then at Monday’s high of 76.77. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.13 and then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading sharply higher early today and hit a fresh 11-week high overnight. Prices have seen a strong and bullish upside "breakout" from a previously well-defined trading range on the daily chart. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5

GRAINS Prices were mostly higher in overnight trading. Grains are focusing on the key "outside markets" and they are bullish today— sharply higher crude oil prices, a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer U.S. stock indexes. With the majority corn and soybean harvest complete, the harvest-related selling pressure in those markets has subsided and that’s also a positive. Cash basis levels for corn and soybeans also remain firm.

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