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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 26

Oct 26, 2011

Wednesday, October 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s nearing the end of the month and U.S. stock indexes are poised to exit October with solid gains on the month. Recent price action in the indexes has seen them hit new multi-month highs, and they are poised to produce bullish upside "breakouts" from their sideways and choppy trading ranges. The stock indexes have recently "climbed a wall of worry" and the bulls are now hoping for the seasonal Santa Claus rally to propel the indexes still higher. Stock market bears are hoping the October rally in stock indexes was an early Santa Claus rally.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 1,254.40 and then at 1,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,222.50 and then at 1,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18- day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,350.00 and then at the October high of 2,388.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short- term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,316.00 and then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 11,700 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,625. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,800 and then at this week’s high of 11,875. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 139 16/32 and then at 139 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter- term technical resistance lies at 140 even and then at Tuesday’s high of 140 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18- day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 129.09.5 and then at Monday’s high of 129.21.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.16.0 and then at Tuesday’s low of 128.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.48 and then at this week’s high of 76.77. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 76.13 and then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early today. Prices have seen a strong and bullish upside "breakout" from a previously well-defined trading range on the daily chart. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $94.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $94.65. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00 and then at the overnight low of $92.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS Prices were firmer in overnight trading. Grains are focusing on the key "outside markets" and they are mildly bullish today— firmer crude oil prices, a steady-weak U.S. dollar index and firmer U.S. stock indexes. With the majority corn and soybean harvest complete, the harvest-related selling pressure in those markets has subsided and that’s also a positive. Cash basis levels for corn and soybeans also remain firm.

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