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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 29

Oct 29, 2012

Monday, October 29--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The main news event in the market place to start the new
trading week is Hurricane Sandy that is poised to lash the
U.S. eastern coast. The New York Stock Exchange and New York
futures exchanges are closed, although there is still
electronic trading of New York markets Monday. Still, with
New York City virtually shut down, trading activity will be
lighter early this week. Traders are awaiting Friday’s U.S.
employment report. In overnight trading, European stocks
were lower. Attention in Europe is on Greece presently, as
European Union officials debate releasing another tranche of
EU bailout money to that financially troubled country—
despite Greece not meeting its austerity targets. The
closely monitored Spanish and Italian bond yields crept
higher Monday, which is a sign if increasing investor
anxiety regarding the EU sovereign debt crisis. Asian stocks
were mixed, with Asian traders awaiting the Bank of Japan
meeting on Tuesday, which is expected to see the BOJ
announce further monetary stimulus measures for the Japanese
economy. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes
the Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing survey, personal
income and outlays, and the Texas manufacturing outlook
survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today, Prices
Friday hit a 10-week low. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,406.70 and then at 1,416.70. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Friday’s low of 1,394.70 and
then at 1,380.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a 2.5-month
low on Friday. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,658.50 and then at 2,673.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 2,625.00 and then at
Friday’s low of 2,604.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a 10-week low Friday as bulls are
fading. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,000 and then at
13,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today, on
short covering and some fresh safe-haven demand. Trading has
been choppy recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 149 even and
then at 149 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 148 2/32 and then at 147 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on
more short covering and safe-haven buying. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 133.00.0 and then at 133.08.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.17.5 and
then at 132.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today. Prices Friday hit a six-week high and closed
at a bullish weekly high close. While bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are gaining
upside momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at Friday’s high of 80.37 and then at
80.57. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
80.07 and then at 79.77. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today and are hovering near
a 13-week low hit last week. Bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage as a downtrend on the daily bar
chart has been re-established. In December Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $86.43 and then at $87.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at last week’s low of
$84.94 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and wheat
were higher and soybeans were lower. The key outside
markets are in a bearish posture for the grains early
today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil
prices are lower. Focus of grain traders is on the
worldwide grain demand prospects, amid higher price levels.
 

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